‘Labour will face more marginals than ever in 2029. Preparation must start now’ – LabourList (2024)

To achieve a landslide victory four and half years after Labour’s worst election defeat since 1935 will always be deemed remarkable.

Keir Starmer, and his team, have managed what many thought was impossible. Labour was able to win by building a disciplined political project and, accordingly, a broad coalition across the country. But the election result is more complex and offers lessons for the party to win again in 2029.

Firstly, as has been mentioned extensively, the coalition is broad but shallow. We won 34% of the vote, only a few percentage points up on 2019.

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In a first-past-the-post system, a focus on vote share is silly, but now, more critically, there are far more marginal seats at the next election (including my own) than ever before. The average majority in 2019 was more than 11,000, and it is now just over 6,000. There were 23 three-way marginals in 2019, and now there are almost 100.

Secondly, the 2024 election represented the death-knell of uniform national swing. The median swing from Conservative to Labour was 12.4, but there were almost 90 seats with a larger swing to Labour than the highest swing achieved in 1997 (see South West Norfolk with a swing of -25.9).

Put another way, in 1974, 92% of seats swung within a 5% band – nearly every constituency behaved in a similar manner at a general election. At this election, only 28% of seats swung within the 5% band. This is a fundamental shift in our politics that has not been properly acknowledged.

Anomalies in the general election results are not easily explained

The discrepancies cannot be explained by geography. Every region, bar Scotland where Labour’s success was resounding and uniform, had at least one swing in each direction. Similarly, seats of similar demographic make-up saw wildly different swings – with only the most exceptional swings away from the Conservatives coming in previously safe Tory seats exemplifying the staggering efficiency of the Labour vote.

Nor can the disparate results be put down to single issues. Of course, the horrific war in Gaza was at the root of some anomalies (within a sea of anomalies) such as in Dewsbury, Ilford North and Leicester South.

Whilst Labour’s vote increased in a relatively uniform manner, the Tory decline varied dramatically – for example the Tory vote declined by 30% in some seats and less than 10% in others without any obvious explanation. Some Conservative MPs were able to squeeze the Reform vote better than others, but nonetheless, the variation should be noted and better understood.

The ‘Brexit realignment’ has not been neatly reversed, as some predicted, but a volatile electorate has shattered chaotically. There is no coherent explanation or consistent explanation of the 2024 election that can be given through the prism of the Brexit referendum.

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Multi-party politics also changes the dynamics. Reform are now second in more than 90 seats, whilst the rise of the Green vote in some urban centres means that, in reality, there are very few safe seats. The Liberal Democrats have mastered the system they hate – maximising their vote efficiency to win far more seats than they did, for example, in 2010, with almost half the equivalent vote share.

The chaotic result is evidenced by the confused polling assessments. The polls in the build-up to the election were both extraordinarily wrong and at the same time broadly correct.

There was a big polling miss on the Labour vote share (with most pollsters putting Labour above 40%, or at least just below). The MRPs suggested huge Labour majorities in seats that did not materialise, and constituency polls were completely wrong – Labour was predicted to win in Islington North convincingly, but Jeremy Corbyn was victorious.

However, all respected polls predicted a large Labour majority which came to pass. Nobody quite appreciated just how efficient Labour’s vote would prove to be.

Politics is more fragmented – and Labour cannot be complacent

What are the lessons? The political project Starmer developed in opposition must be continued ferociously and meticulously. There is no room for complacency or luxury to coast. A swing of around 4% would lead to a hung parliament.

Politics is more local and fragmented than ever before. The old adages that when the herd moves, it moves, or that the tide will wipe out all, are wrong. The inevitability of the national uniform swing has to be put to bed and analysis as to ‘winnable’ and ‘unwinnable’ seats needs to be better informed as to the local dynamics. Despite the world being more interconnected than ever before, the rise of social media means people are focused on their place and locality.

The Liberal Democrats have mastered the use of a local over the national narrative for some time. It is an easier task for the third, or at times fourth, party in British politics. And they used this advantage again at this election. Polling shows that the third most important reason for voting Liberal Democrat at the general election was the favourability of the local candidate – after tactical voting in second place.

The surprisingly successful performance of independents, shocking the pollsters and the commentators, is further evidence of the more fragmented and volatile electorate. Indeed, little notice has been given to the handful of Conservative MPs who successfully distanced themselves from their party, ran as ‘super-councillors’ and over-performed accordingly.

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Academic studies suggesting that maximising the incumbency effect is only really worth 3% to 5% need to be reassessed, and we must now begin to build this advantage in our key defensive seats – and be supported by the central party to do so.

What lessons can Labour learn for the next general election?

The popularity of local champions, over national political agendas, is compounded by the unprecedented apathy in the ability of Westminster politics to effect change.

Polls show that levels of trust in politicians and our politics, from Leavers and Remainers, has essentially collapsed since 2016 – and both reached a nadir this summer. Turnout was down (though there are fascinating discrepancies in constituency turnout which further evidence the importance of a local campaign).

The Labour government must deliver change. And, as has been written and acknowledged elsewhere, that change must be enacted in the spirit of urgency. The Labour government holds a mighty majority in parliament but is faced with increasing political challenges in each direction: snake oil charm to the right, opportunist Greens to the left and a Conservative Party that will fight back with vengeance.

The lessons for victory in 2029: deliver radical change to raise living standards and improve public services, run aggressive and organised campaigns on a hyper-local basis and prove, as the Prime Minister has said, that politics can be a force for good. No time for a lengthy summer break – let’s get to work.

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